If the results of by-election to four seats in Assam have confirmed the depleting popularity of opposition Congress, they have also proven that the ruling BJP is still on a roll in the state.

Despite anti-incumbency, the saffron party managed to retain all three seats such as Ratabari, Rangapara and Sonari. The fourth, Jania, was with the Congress but it was wrested by minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

One reason behind the victory of AIUDF, which is headed by perfume baron and Lok Sabha member, Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, was possibly the BJP’s putting up a powerful candidate in Towfiqur Rahman. The anti-AIUDF votes got split in BJP and Congress, benefitting Ajmal’s party.

Secondly, the winner, Rafiqul Islam, is a former AIUDF MLA. The constituency has a large number of Muslim voters and many of them to this day view Ajmal and his AIUDF as their messiah given the increasing citizenship crisis in Assam. Jania is the only seat that the AIUDF contested.

The BJP is growing in the state’s Muslim belt but not so much to spring a surprise. The party would have much to rejoice had it won the Jania seat. The three seats which it won are tea garden areas where the party already has a solid base. The tea voters had been with the Congress for years until they shifted their loyalty to the BJP ahead of 2014 Parliamentary elections.

Congress is the biggest loser. When people expected the party to benefit from the mess of National Register of Citizens (NRC) and BJP’s bid to pass Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016, not only did the party lose Jania that it held, it also failed to leave a mark in the three other seats that it contested.

“We retained the three seats but lost one (Jania). However, the rise of our vote share in Jania is a testimony to the fact that people have started believing in our policy of inclusive development,” BJP’s state president Ranjit Kumar Dass said.

The Congress spokespersons were not available for comments.

Political scientist Akhil Ranjan Dutta said, “The BJP is in an advantageous position because civic resistance to Citizenship Bill has gone down. They are also in an advantageous position because being in power they are giving beneficiary schemes, particularly to tea tribes. As regards the Congress, it now doesn’t have any strength in the organisation, and at the leadership level, they are completely demoralised”.