New Delhi, The BJP is expected to emerge as the single largest party with 30 per cent vote share in Goa, which will go to the polls early next year, as per the third ABP News-CVoter Battle for the States Tracker.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to be the main opposition with 24 per cent vote share, while erstwhile prime contender Congress is projected to poll 20 per cent votes. It is clear from the vote share that Goa is heading for a split verdict that could eventually lead to a hung Assembly, as per the survey.

The current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted from November 13 to December 9, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.

As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ persons across five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa). It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5 per cent and may not necessarily have factored in all the criteria.

In the earlier rounds of the Tracker, BJP was projected to win a simple majority, but heading into the final weeks, that edge has undergone erosion. Currently, BJP is projected to win 19 seats, just one shy of the halfway mark of 20 seats. AAP is the surprise of the pack and is expected to win 7 seats, higher than the 6 seats projected for the Congress.

In normal times, the anti-incumbency in the state would have been sufficient to sink the fortunes of the BJP. However, the incompetence of state Congress and better groundwork of AAP has split the anti-incumbency votes. This has pushed the BJP into an advantageous position.

The kingmakers in this scenario will be the other smaller parties that are currently projected to poll 26 per cent vote share and win 8 seats. In a hung Assembly, just like the previous Vidhan Sabha, the government formation will be a messy process with some twists and turns.

Incumbent Chief Minister Pramod Sawant of the BJP is the most popular leader for the CM's post among the Goans with 29 per cent approval.

The second spot is held by AAP's unnamed leader with 21 per cent approval. Digambar Kamat of Congress is the third most popular leader with 14 per cent approval. This brings up the question of leadership dividend for AAP. If AAP is currently doing well without a face, does it stand to gain from projecting a strong leader?