Despite being in power for 15 years, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is likely to get a record fourth term in the state, IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll shows. 

According to India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, the BJP may win 128 seats while the Congress may manage to come first on 85 seats. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win eight seats and Others nine seats in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections. In the 2013 Assembly poll, the BJP had won 165 seats, while the Congress managed to win just 58 seats.Mayawati's BSP won four seats and others three in the polling for 230-seat state Assembly. 

For the BJP, Assembly elections in five states, including Madhya Pradesh, are being seen as a litmus test for the Narendra Modi government at the Centre. For the Congress, it would be a big test for Rahul Gandhi's leadership.

Vote share:

Vote share wise, BJP may get 42.5 per cent, Congress may get 37.19 per cent, Mayawati's BSP may get 7.7 per cent, and others may get 12.61 per cent votes. In the 2013 Assembly polls, BJP had got 44.88 per cent and the Congress had got 36.38 per cent votes. This represents a 2.38 per cent downward swing in vote share for BJP, the pre-poll survey showed. 

Region-wise prediction

Giving region wise seat predictions, the pre-poll survey shows that Chambal region having 34 seats,  BJP may win 15, Congress 12, BSP four, Others three seats. In Malwa-Nimar region, having 72 seats, BJP may win 45, Congress 24 and Others three seats. 

In Baghelkhand region having 52 seats, BJP may win 25, Congress may win 21, BSP four and Others two seats. In Bhopal region, having 22 seats, BJP may win 12 and the Congress may win 10 seats. In the Mahakoshal region having 50 seats, BJP may win 31 seats, and the Congress 18, leaving one seat to Others.