Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not known for granting media interviews, preferring, like US president Donald Trump, to use social media to air his often oracular views. But on New Year's Day, he grabbed the opportunity to grant a 'friendly' interview and make his views known on a number of subjects. The common thread in his responses was his attack on the Opposition.
In context, then, let us begin with Modi's rebuttal of the 'Opposition claim' that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win no more than 180 seats. To begin with, this is not just a claim made by the Opposition. Many political observers and citizens are saying roughly the same thing and not all of them are Opposition stooges. This is not the time to go into a detailed analysis, because, apart from all other things, it is much too early to embark upon a detailed mathematical exercise. But, minimally, the basis for predicting a sharp drop in BJP seats is that the party won over 80 percent of the seats in the regions in which it has a presence — in the west and the north mostly. This is something unlikely to be replicated, while there are no indications that the party is breaking through in new areas.
Modi said during the interview that this prediction was just a ploy to win over more allies for the proposed anti-BJP alliance (gathbandhan). "If they do not do this sort of maths and spread such things how will people join their gathbandhan?" Modi asked rhetorically, before asking for the scientific basis for this prediction. Several things stand out in this 'simple' declamatory passage.
First, Modi's charge is distinctly accusatory. But what basis is there to accuse 'them' of making such a prediction? If it is just a ploy, it surely is a legitimate ploy. The BJP does it all the time. Party president Amit Shah is on record saying that the BJP will win 400 seats in the next Lok Sabha and 22 of those from Bengal. Forget 'scientific basis', both are patently absurd claims, but they are legitimate ones in a political context. Just as Shah cannot be expected to say that his party will be rolled over in Bengal and fail to win a majority in the Lok Sabha, both practically foregone conclusions, the Opposition, too, cannot be expected to say that the BJP will win a handsome majority on its own.
Second, who exactly are these 'they' who are trying to attract new allies by spreading 'such things'. Last time we heard, a good number of Opposition parties had severally or conjointly declared their intention to dislodge the BJP from the Centre. Among them are the Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Janata Dal (Secular), Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Trinamool Congress, the Left and a host of smaller parties in the heartland and the South. So, who are this they? And who are they trying to attract? The handful of fence-sitters like the Biju Janata Dal, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YSR Congress? As asked before, why shouldn't the Opposition try to attract more allies? What is the prime minister's beef?
Warming to this theme, Modi also said that his party would trust the intelligence of the common people. "I keep telling all political pundits," he said, "Let us trust the common man’s intelligence." That is an unexceptionable sentiment, never mind that it didn't do his party much good in the five Assembly elections held at the end of the year just gone by. But the prime minister also went on to assert there was no reason for the common people not to support the BJP. Big on rhetoric again, Modi asked, "After all, what did the common people experience from this government that they will go away from us?… The common man knows it all."
Rhetorical questions normally do not need answers, but there are so many that we cannot refrain from supplying a few. The farm crisis, unemployment, demonetisation, the shambolic rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and much more besides. Demonetisation, that Modi defended as a measure that was necessary for the country's economic health even though it put the brakes on growth, singehandedly destroyed much of the informal economy and micro, small and medium enterprises. That, in turn, severely crimped the potential of generating employment. The shambolic GST rollout further hit the economy, hard. May we suggest that these in themselves constitute enough reason for the common people to 'go away' from the BJP?
There were many other issues the prime minister flagged. We shall refer to just a few: Sabarimala and triple talaq, hyphenated, the Trinamool raj in Bengal and the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Without much doubt, the outlawing of triple talaq is one of the few initiatives undertaken by this government that needs to be commended. Once it goes through the Rajya Sabha, with or without a referral to a select committee, it will provide absolutely essential relief to a large number of Muslim women. But what exactly did the prime minister mean when he says talaq is an issue of gender justice or equality, while Sabarimala is a question of tradition?
Both are issues of 'tradition', actually. And both are issues of gender discrimination. The prime minister cannot get away from the fact that a majority judgement delivered by a Supreme Court bench has outlawed the ban on women of menstruating age entering the Sabarimala shrine. Instead of looking at the majority judgement, Modi sought to focus on the dissenting order. Coming from the prime minister of the country, this is absolutely shameful. Instead of telling his party that it should respect the verdict, he is, in effect, encouraging it to continue opposing it.
As far as the broadside against the Trinamool regime is concerned, it is clear that the BJP has not been prevented from going about its business. As was pointed out in court, around 21,000 events have been allowed in the past two years. Apart from which, the very fact that the BJP has grown so phenomenally in Bengal in the past few years is pretty clinching evidence that it does not labour under a draconian regime.
Finally, the Ram Mandir. The prime minister must be commended for hinting that the judicial process would be allowed to play itself out and no legislative force majeure was being contemplated. But it is not clear what exactly he meant when he said, "In court, Congress lawyers, who are obstacles, should stop." As far as we can see, lawyers, whether Congress or not, are doing what they are supposed to do: Represent the interests of their clients as best as possible. Modi would be better advised to ask the hotheads among his party colleagues, like Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, to forthwith cease their clamour for a law or ordinance to enable the building of a grand temple at the exact spot where a mythological character was 'born'. And he should remember that his party demolished the Babri Masjid, when litigation was underway.
At this point in time, it would be foolish for observers to predict what the shape of the Lok Sabha will be in a few months' time. But it is a cinch that the BJP will not get anywhere near a single-party majority. That is possibly the proximate reason for the prime minister feeling anxious and taking absurd potshots against the Opposition, which, despite Shah's deep desires, shows no signs of melting away.