With the slogan '19 on 19', that is, to get 19 rebel MLAs to defect by 19 January, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has begun its most serious attempt yet to dislodge the seven-month-old Congress-JD(S) coalition government in Karnataka. Five Congress MLAs and one independent have been holed up in a five-star hotel in Mumbai for the past few days, while three more rebels are spending time in New Delhi waiting for a meeting with BJP chief Amit Shah. Efforts are on to get more MLAs to jump the ship before 19 January to reduce the coalition government of HD Kumaraswamy to a minority.

Code-named as 'Operation Sankranthi' to coincide with the festival of harvest, the central leadership of the BJP is trying to harvest the discontent within the Congress after the Cabinet expansion. Simultaneously, in order to prevent counter-poaching of its own MLAs, it has moved all of them (104 to be precise) to Gurugram in Haryana.

Fissures opened up in the Congress once it filled up six vacancies in the Cabinet after nearly seven months of forming the government. JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda advised Congress chief Rahul Gandhi to postpone the exercise until after the Lok Sabha polls, but the Congress had its own compulsions.

Former chief minister and chairman of the coordination committee Siddaramaiah was given the hatchet job of snatching home portfolio from deputy chief minister G Parameshwar and giving it to his confidant MB Patil, taking away medical education from DK Shivakumar, replacing Ramesh Jarkhiholi with his brother and rival, Satish Jarkhiholi and so on. Siddaramaiah worked on bringing in influential caste leaders and money bags, keeping the Lok Sabha elections in mind.

The exercise has apparently ruffled many delicate feathers, leading to simmering dissidence. Miffed at being left out of the ministry, MLAs Nagendra, Bheema Naik, Kampli Ganesh, Anand Singh and Pratap Gouda of the Congress and R Shankar, an independent, have moved to a ‘halfway home’ in Mumbai, ready to negotiate with the BJP. PWD minister in Maharashtra Chandrakanth Patil is said to be hosting them.

The BJP is also eyeing to weaken position of key Congress candidates contesting the Lok Sabha seats and that’s one of the reasons why Umesh Jadhav, an MLA from Chincholi in Gulbarga has become a target. Leader of Congress in Lok Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge, who will seek re-election from Gulbarga, will feel the heat if Jadhav is taken away by the BJP, as he commands a substantial chunk of Lambani votes.

Having begun ‘Operation Lotus 2.0’ in right earnest, the BJP will realise that unlike in 2008, when the then chief minister BS Yeddyurappa was able to lure nearly 18 JD(S) and Congress MLAs to resign their seats and successfully re-contest, this time it is not going to be an easy task.

Reasons are that Yeddyurappa is no longer the force he used to be. The BJP after the failure of its government in Karnataka has lost much of its sheen and the Congress and the JD(S) are in an alliance unlike earlier and re-election is not guaranteed.

Another crucial factor which may deter operation lotus 2.0 is that unlike last time, being in the opposition, the BJP doesn’t have its Speaker in the Assembly. Even after the BJP convinces some rebels to resign, the Speaker can hold back his consent indefinitely, thwarting defections. Veteran Congressman Ramesh Kumar is the current Speaker and that might stymy BJP's plans.

There is a growing perception in the central BJP leadership that in order to avoid carrying the odium of causing defection to grab power, if the Kumaraswamy ministry were to fall now, the BJP should not attempt to form an alternative government and instead, keep the Assembly under suspended animation and impose President's Rule till the Lok Sabha elections were over.

If that were to be the final outcome of the current drama or if the BJP is forced to abandon its operation defection for now, it would be the end of Yeddyurappa’s dream to return to power as chief minister of Karnataka.